Bartlett, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

815
FXUS64 KMEG 041130
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
630 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

-Severe storms and excessive rainfall are expected to continue
 through Saturday night.

-A Moderate Risk of severe weather is in effect through tonight
 for portions of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel.

-An Enhanced Risk of severe weather is in effect for much of the
 rest of the Mid-South through Saturday night.

-A High Risk of excessive rainfall is in effect through Saturday
 night. Total rainfall amounts of 10 to 15 inches along and north
 of I-40 are likely. This is not your average flood risk.
 Generational flooding with devastating impacts is possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

A dangerous pattern continues across the Mid-South through Saturday
night with a few more rounds of severe storms and heavy rains
with generational flooding possible.

So far 2 to 8 inches of rain have fallen north of a Clarksdale, MS
to Corinth, MS with a band of 6 to 8 inches across much of the
Memphis metro. This has resulted in several rivers already in
flood.

A stationary front was located from just south of Clarksdale, MS
to just north of Savannah, TN at 07z this morning. A 40 kt LLJ is
impinging on this boundary resulting in scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms from roughly I-40 northward. The severe
threat has diminished for the moment as instability has waned a
bit. PWs invof the boundary are very high resulting in heavy
rainfall rates and a continued flash flood threat through the
overnight into the morning hours.

The upper low over the SW US will slowly approach and a piece of
upper level energy will lift through the Southern Plains this
morning. As a result the stalled boundary will lift north today
and extend from SE MO into the OH River Valley by this evening.
This will push much of the shower and thunderstorm activity to
the northern portions of the Mid-South and even north of the
region. This will give much of the area a much needed break
including Memphis which will help get some of the water out of the
system in that area. Expect highs in the 80s across most of the
Mid-South. A weak surface low will track from western AR along
the front into southern IL this evening. The airmass south of the
front will become very unstable today with SBCAPES over 2500 J/kg.
Hodographs are impressive with strong veering and 0-3km helicity
values over 300 m2/s2. 0-6km shear of 40-50 kts will support
severe storms along with a LLJ increasing to 50 kts during the
evening. Any storms that develop in the warm sector could be
long-lived with all hazards possible including a strong tornado.
The most likely area for severe storms will be across eastern
Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel with most likely time for
severe storms from 3 pm to midnight. As the instability gradually
wanes expect a transition to more of a flooding threat mainly
north of I-40 today where there is a moderate-high risk for
excessive rainfall.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue and expand on Saturday as
the boundary starts to moves southeast as a cold front while the
main upper low lifts northeast through the Southern Plains. Lift
will increase across the region and widespread showers and
thunderstorms will slowly push across the Mid-South. Expect the
airmass to destabilize once again ahead of the front with an
enhanced risk for severe storms. All hazards are in play.
Increasing winds aloft could produce a higher end wind threat on
Saturday with bowing segments likely. Very heavy rain is also
likely as the airmass will be very moist with PWs around 2 inches.
There is a high risk of excessive rainfall for much of the Mid-
South with all types of flooding likely including areal, flash and
river. The front will continue to move slowly across the area
Saturday night with the severe storm and heavy rain threat
gradually shifting SE. The heavy rain should be east of the area
by sunrise Sunday.

A large area, basically north of a Marianna,AR to Memphis to
Parsons, TN line, will likely receive 10+ inches of rain for this
event. That is a lot of water over a large area and will result
in significant, possibly generational flooding. This could cause
severe disruptions.

Much cooler weather is on tap for Sunday with leftover showers as
the upper trough lifts through. Temps will range from around 50
north to lower 70s in Monroe County. A deep upper trough will
develop over the eastern US with much below normal temps expected
for the Mid-South. Expect lows in the 30s for much of the Mid-
South Monday through Wednesday morning with patchy frost possible.
Temps moderate toward the end of the week with a chance of showers
as a system passes through the OH Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Periods of IFR CIGs at MEM and JBR should improve shortly as a
stalled boundary wobbles north by midday. MVFR/VFR ceilings will
return in the afternoon. Another round of thunderstorms will kick
off early afternoon and last into the overnight hours, mainly
impacting MEM and JBR. Added LLWS mention in the taf for time
periods not encompassed with TS mention as a LLJ orients across
the airspace after sunset. Otherwise, expect gusty south winds in
excess of 25 kts.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MSZ001>005-007-008-
     010>014-020.

     Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for
     MSZ006-009-015>017-021>024.

TN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...ANS