Bartlett, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

932
FXUS64 KMEG 250443
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1143 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1131 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

- Significant river flooding will continue across portions of the
  Mid-South.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will trend higher through
  Friday, then become more scattered over the weekend.

- Temperatures will stay in the upper 70s to low 80s this weekend,
  warming to the mid and upper 80s by Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are slowly dissipating across
the Mid-South with loss of heating. The next upper level
disturbance will push into the area after midnight and this will
trigger new development that will continue into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

A summer-like pattern, comprised of daily thunderstorm chances and
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, will persist through Friday.
The severe weather parameter space during this time will lack
adequate wind shear, but house SBCAPE values in excess of 1200
J/kg. Therefore, upscale storm growth is not anticipated, but a
few storms may tap into available fuel and produce pulse-like
hailers and a damaging wind gust or two.

Rain chances begin tapering off on Saturday as a slow-moving cold
front crosses the Mid-South. A few rumbles of thunder will be
possible as this boundary translates south. However, widespread
rainfall is not anticipated. A few lingering showers may persist
into Sunday, but most of the area should expect drying conditions
as upper level ridging builds into the region. Rainfall totals
through the weekend remain less than 1.5 inches. However, locally
higher amounts are possible depending on where storms pop-up.
Regardless, any intense rainfall may cause flooding issues along
local streams and rivers.

The beginning of next week will be warm and mostly dry with highs
in the mid to upper 80s. Additional rainfall is possible late
Tuesday as another cold front approaches. A sliver of the Mid-
South is included in a Day 6 Slight Risk for severe storms.
However, the overall severe weather profile remains lack luster
with the best forcing confined to the upper Mississippi River
Valley. Storms will likely be decaying as they move into the Mid-
South, but could pose a damaging wind threat. Expect adjustments
to this outlook in coming updates.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Messy TAF set remains this issuance. Isolated shower and
occasional thunderstorm chances will increase over the next
several hours as an upper level disturbance pushes in. A brief
lull in precipitation will exist around sunrise before the next
round pushes in ahead of a cold front. One thing to note is that
CAMs are really struggling with both impulses given the amount of
timing uncertainty. By 00Z, precipitation will finally exit all TAF
sites, behind the cold front. With each wave of precipitation,
intermittent drops to MVFR/IFR conditions are expected. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail. South/southwest winds will remain
sub 10 kts over the next 30 hrs. A pretty good signal for fog
along already saturated soil exists across the Mid-South overnight
tomorrow. A TEMPO was added for such at MEM.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...AEH